Wednesday, October 21, 2015

No, I don't think The Force Awakens will beat Jurrassic World on opening weekend

I have been called blasphemous and have been accused of smoking crack because of my prediction that Star Wars won't break the opening weekend record.  Here are a few of my reasons for thinking this.  I am among the biggest Star Wars fans I know, so I hope I'm wrong.
  • Although the original trilogy did quite well and A New Hope and Return of the Jedi broke the opening weekend records, a Star Wars film hasn't done that since.  
    • The Phantom Menace DID NOT break the opening weekend record (neither did Attack of the Clones or Revenge of the Sith) despite the sheer amount of people buying tickets early and standing in line. It didn't take the crown away from the then current record holder...wait for it....Jurassic Park: The Lost World. If someone had said that Phantom Menace wouldn't take the box office away from The Lost World, they would have been called blasphemous as well. 
    • We also have to understand that A New Hope broke records because it had almost no competition in the 'blockbuster' category. It was the 2nd blockbuster EVER, so while it was a great achievement, it should not be considered as precedent in this matter.  
  • Generally, millennials don't care about Star Wars.  There are some exceptions, but as Chris Pratt (star of Jurassic World and Guardians of the Galaxy) once said, Jurassic Park was the Star Wars of his (the millennial) generation.  
    • I would never have thought that Jurassic World would even come close to beating out The Avengers or even The Dark Knight, but it did.  I highly doubt that Star Wars has more box office potential than Tony Stark and his friends among the crucial demographic of millennials.
  •  The film opens in December.  The reason this is important is because films that open in the Holiday season almost NEVER do as well as it would have in the summer.  The classic anecdote to show this is when Pixar renegotiated its deal with Disney: it demanded that its films be released in the summer instead of Thanksgiving so it could get better box office performance.  And their demands paid off, literally. 
  • Look at the list below.  You'll see two Star Wars movies, but none in the last 30 years.  
  • Star Wars fans are among the most passionate in the world.  However, there is very little evidence that they are more plentiful than Jurassic Park, Avengers, or Batman fans. 

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